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You know what I wish existed, or that we could create....

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You know what I wish existed, or that we could create....

broncobilly83

Scrooge McDuck's #1 Nickel
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I was thinking about this throughout the morning, as I tried yesterday to help someone out with the new Beloved Tales UP! pin. I wish there was a formula, scale, guide sheet, etc, that can help normalize trading somewhat. Do not get me wrong, I realize that pin trading is subjective, as it is based on wants and even though something is on your list, it might lower or higher than others on the list (I am that way), but I use the UP! pin as a perfect example. This is a pin that came out under 30 days ago, retailed for X amount of dollars and LE300, etc, and I realize due to the unannounced nature, UP! pin status, etc, it became an instant classic, and I thought I made some nice offers, i.e. LE100s, older PTNs (I mean like 2005-2006 ones), Marquees, etc and they were passed on. That is fine as that is the nature of pin trading, but it got me thinking, this is almost the exact opposite of when we have people trying to get LE250's for a Hidden Mickey, etc. In this case we have a new pin that has skyrocketed, and in turn pins that most would trade for in an instant are now not enough.

So it got me thinking, if we removed the subjective nature of pin trading, is there a way to formulate a trade based on all the objective factors, such as:
  • Release date
  • LE #
  • Cost
  • People trading
  • People wanting
and other factors I might not be thinking about.
 
I think it's hard to do in today's collector pool because too many people overvalue certain pins. Everyone wants to have the next Up Marquee or what have you and think that when they get a pin that gets hot, it must instantly be worth every Holy Grail they ever wanted. I know one person on these boards claim they were going to use the Up Beloved Tales pin to get the Marquee pin for either Up, Tangled or Wall-E. That is instant over-valueing. I recently got my Up Beloved Tales pin on Ebay for under $80. Do you think that could happen with any of those Marquees? Of course not.

So until the over-valuing gets under control, a lot of the newer "hot" pins, no matter how briefly they are hot, will be unattainable through trade.
 
But like in my case I know I can't get Tangled, Wall-E or Up for that beloved tale and I know what I can and what I can't get for that pin. I'm just picky on what I trade it for. Obviously anything Up is a hot pin and there seems to be an uproar and a craze for the beloved tales and I have a feeling that the Up! Beloved tale is going to be one of the harder ones to get in the future. Between the Up! collectors and the beloved tale collectors they wont give them up because its an important asset to their collection and that's why the Tangled and Up marquees are htf because the folks that have them wont trade them and its the same for the Little mermaid and certain beloved tales. I'm not really trading hard I'm just picky and when and if the Up! Beloved tale becomes a htf pin I don't want to be that guy who says "oh I had that pin when it wasn't worth what its worth now". I'm not the only person who is thinking this way because the beloved tales along with the marquees are the few pins that trade better the older they are.
 
People forget why the Up marquee is so valuable and then incorrectly attribute that value to other marquee's. The Up marquee was sold at a time when the marquee's were no where near as crazy as they are today. No one ran to DSF to buy tons of marquee's back when it came out. The Up pin, from what I've been told, was a surprise pin, and before they announced it on Facebook like they do today. The pin was pun on the shelf and apparently many viewings of the movie were shown and people left the theater and then bought the pin as a keepsake from the movie, many not even pin collectors at all. The Up pin is LE150 but I've heard many estimate the number of the marquee pins in the trading community is much lower. After the trading community found out the pin was available, since Up was so new, only a few ran to grab one. The lucky few.

Marquee's were gaining momentum by the time Tangled came out and DSF was on Facebook. People were prepared and those that wanted them got them no problem. The other Tangled pins sat on the shelves for weeks. I think even some made it to the clearance bin.

Now, Pinpics is looking into this exact sort of valuation type system. This will be the part you have to pay a subscription for. They are going to keep tabs on recent ebay sales of a pin, forum sale prices, try to use trade vs. wants and # of owns (# kept private though..) and use all this to assigne a desirability type score to a pin. I mentioned maybe a slider like you see on yahoo stocks where they have red means bad stock, dump it. bright green means it's a holy grail. That type of thing. They will also try to predict the future value of a pin that has yet to be released. That is a ways down the road for them I think but it is in the works from my understanding.
 
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And Mark is right, not many pin traders for a hold of the marquee at the time of its release. Also back then there wasn't a limit on how many pins you can buy. For all we know there can be 7 of them chilling in some kids toy box in Montgomery, Alabama
 
Actually, there was a limit on the Up pins Marquee release. All the DSF UP pins including the Marquee were first released at the special D23 viewing of UP. I believe we were only allowed to buy 1 or 2 of each pin released that night. I only bought 1 of each but I can't remember if that was the limit or I didn't have money to buy 2 each. Then at the end of the night, we all got the free Up All Night D23 pin. Whatever pins remained were put on the shelf. I think the Marquee might have sold out that night at the event.

Mark is exactly correct though, that the value of the UP marquee pin is incorrectly attributed to the other Marquee pins now. I think that is in the process of correcting itself as more and more Marquees are languishing on ebay at too high a price.
 
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