PLEASE HELP. Determining the (Trading) value of a pin

[iamdisneydan]

Hello Fellow pin traders.

I would like to know your opinions on what I am about to present. I will try to keep it as short as possible. (or at least shorter than usual)

I think pin value plays the biggest part in any trade. Now of course, I agree that regardless of the pin, as long as you are getting something you want and are happy, the cost is not an issue. But here is where I have a difficult time.

Some people have told me that they only go by eBay and others by Pinpics. I personally believe in using both but here is my point.

Many have said that when they trade, they use the trades / wants ratio as a guidline as to how in demand a particular pin is. So lets say we both have an LE250 pin and one has 5 trading and 20 wanting and the other has 5 trading and 200 wanting.

For now, we do see that the pin with 200 wanting is far more in demand. Do I assume that that pin is more valuable?

When I trade, I always start by saying "Is that a Hard Pin?" in respect to the person I am trying to trade with. It also gives me an indication of if it will be an easy trade or a harder trade meaning I will have to supply a better pin for it.

On other occassions, even though we will be trading and I am told a pin is hard and highly in demand, what does that mean as far as what I have to trade?

I will ask people, even though we will be trading, what would you say the monetary value of the pin is? Now lets say they say $100.00, I have an idea of what I will have to trade because they are looking for a pin or pins with a similar value.

How can you just go by the wants / trades? I am not slamming PinPics, I have made it clear it is an awesome site and I am grateful for it.

So I gues my question is, Lets say YOU have an LE250 pin and I offer you a pin but you pass on the offer. Is it only because you dont like the pin or don't think it is as valuable as the pin you are trading?

Please understand that I DO NOT HAVE MONEY. I am currently seeking a new career.
The reason I say this is because I would rather trade $100.00 of pins for a $50.00 pin than have to come up with cash.

And obviously if there is a great demand for a pin, one would assume that it will have a greater value on the market or in trade. But what happens when the person you are trying to trade with wants over $150.00 in pins and it is currently (NOT) selling on ebay for $50.00 Buy It Now?

Yes I know everyone has different values of thier pins but lets say that 10 have sold for that $50.00, dont you think the person trading should be more realistic? if you have a pin you think is a $100.00 pin and everyday the same pin is selling for $20.00, do you really have a $100.00 pin?

I have had plenaty of pins that I thought were far more valuable than I had thought and then I see them on eBay or on the sales boards for a fraction of what I thought.

Maybe we need a sales board of all sales made of all pins as a reference. Doesnt the selling price of things directly relate to the demand of the item?

So I guess my point is, when you trade, dont you have to consider the value of the pin to a certain degree? Is this not why sometimes we have to trade 2 or 3 pins for a single pin? So the value is equal?

In the back of your mind when making a decision, doesnt value play a part in that decision?

All help, thoughts and opinions are sincerely appreciates.

PS If I were there right now, you would have picked the Queen of Spades. (Seriously)

 

[erudolf]

Ok....lol....there are way too many questions/scenarios in there for me to begin responding to them, so I'll just say how I do things.

I take all of the following into consideration:
1. How bad do I want their pin(s)?
2. How long have I been looking for their pin(s) with no luck?
3. What is the trades/wants, LE, original cost, etc. of their pin(s)?
4. What is the market value of their pin(s)?
5. Do I think their pin(s) will be easier or harder to find in the future? (ex. new releases....depending on the pin I will wait because I figure the price will come down)

5. How attached am I to my pin(s)?
6. How difficult would it be to replace my pin(s)?
7. What is the trades/wants, LE, original cost, etc. of my pin(s)?
8. What is the market value of my pin(s)?
9. Do I think my pin(s) will be easier or harder to find in the future?


Depending on the answers to those questions, I may or may not be comfortable with the trade. If I want the pin really really bad and can't afford to buy it or can't find one to buy, I will over trade for it. But if I have the money and I see it out on ebay but the person wants triple the value....I tell them to take a hike, buy what I want and sell my pins if I need to make up the money. Other times I will trade a better pin away for a lesser pin just because by the time I went through the effort to sell and buy, after shipping I would be in the same place anyways.

This is not an easy thing to explain or quantify. Every scenario is different and every person is going to treat every scenario differently.

 

[hopemax]

I was actually, thinking about starting a similar thread. Now that I've gotten up to my ankles again in online pin trading (I have always had a little in-park trading at the Epcot event), and have had some successes, I was thinking about actually sending out some Pinpics offers. I have always avoided doing it, because after years of reading people's rants about unbalanced offers, I don't want to offend anyone.

My question is... Some pin outlets deal in really low LE pins (300 or less): WDI, DSF, UK Disney Store, Disneystore.com When people buy these for traders, what are they expecting in return? Similarly low edition pins from one of those places that they can't get to? Or will they accept some park LE pins in trade, even though those edition sizes might be LE 750, 1000, 2000? I'm thinking pins with popular characters, and with retail prices equal to or greater than the price of the low edition pin. WDW sells quite a few for $11 or $12, while WDI might be $9 or $10 pin. Or would people look at the difference in edition size and scoff?

My trading philosophy is more "you know it when you see it." Mostly, I end up using the price I paid to acquire a pin as a guide. Pins I paid more for, I want to trade for a more HTG or more expensive pin. I have a couple pins that I paid $12.95 for, so I don't want to trade those for an open edition pin. Meanwhile, I have a couple pins I traded off cast lanyards during the "glory days" of pin trading, pre-scrapper/counterfeit times when DL would put their excess LE pins on the lanyards. There were times you could find many of the 100 Mickeys, and the Attraction poster series on lanyards. The cost to me was a lanyard fodder pin, so while I prefer to trade them for a similarly sized edition pin, I have traded them for older open edition pins that I really wanted. Same for pins that I bought at an outlet store or Disney CM pin sales.

I think 95%, maybe even more, of the pins aren't worth more than their retail price. They might spike at the beginning, or once they are sold out, but over the long term, the price drops and they can be acquired for a reasonable price. Considering there are 63,000 pins listed on Pinpics, this leaves about 3000 pins that would fall into this category. So probably, it is more than 95%. The trick is figuring out which pins are part of the 5%. Wants/Trades ratios can help, Ebay prices can help. I remember when the WDW Castle Dangle Pins were HOT commodities, and now I have twice seen people selling them for $5, and the Pinpics ratio is nothing special these days. I can look on Ebay right now, and see that many of the DA LE 100 pins sell in that $20-$40 range, which I don't think is all that different than when they were originally sold. And there were a bunch in that price range that didn't sell at all. There are those certain HM, Stitch, Tink, Jessica, Maleficent, Alice stuff that is going to cost you. But even in those themes, not all of those pins goes for multiple times its original selling price.

I also think in terms of brackets.

Hidden Mickey series, booster pack, GWP,: I think there are massive amounts of these pins in circulation so I don't want to trade a lot for these. My Dad lives near WDW, and trades. I give him a list of what I am looking for, and I get them for the equivalent of a park trader.

Open edition pins: If a pin has been unavailable for many years, it can bump it up to a higher level. But if the pin is still being sold, I don't rate it very high, but higher than the first group. Again, it more comes down to retail price. Some are $6.95, some are $9.95, so I like to stay similar priced for similar priced.

LE Pins: Most of this group I go by a combo of retail price + edition size.

HTF/Holy Grail pins: The 5% of pins that are going to cost you. Cash, multiple pins, super low LE sizes.

Now my experience, is more on easily acquirable pins. Open stock, or higher LE pins. So I have limited experience of exactly what happens with trades in that 5% group. The nitty gritties.

And one last story. The first pin in my signature, I have wanted for YEARS. No one ever wants to trade it, not very many people even have it on Pinpics. I have looked on Ebay on multiple occasions and not find one. There was one in an Ebay store for $25, and I was wondering if that was going to be the "cost" to complete my sign series set. Also, I have seen someone here, and on Dizpins (maybe the same person) trying to track down that Lost Parents sign pin too. Well, I bought my pin for $5.99 on Ebay on Sunday, and the Lost Parents pin sold for the same price. Only one bid. Hopefully, the person here who wanted it got it. But even though, for a long time this pin was "unavailable" to me, it didn't mean it was valuable.

 

[Rocke01]

I would also consider that December is usually a buyers market on Ebay. That combined with the fact that the economy is what it is I would say that that $50 that the pin is not selling for at this time is just the timing of the auction. If the pin is truly that desirable it will sell at the higher price next year. People as a whole tend to need money more in December and the first of the year until all the tax returns start coming in. I use to shop Ebay a lot and sell there as well and I learned the better selling times and the times not to get too discouraged about it. December is the time to buy from my experience. Not trying to state that as fact or anything just saying that was my experience... LOL.

P.S. Dan you are a good guy to put up with all my ribbing, thanks!

 

[unibear]

I have to say that I use many of ideas Erudolf listed in her list when making a decision. But also high on my list is what I paid for it and would I be willing to pay that amount for the trader in question. If I have a DS.com LE100(135?) set of 6 I bought from Disney directly for $150, I much more willing to trade it lower than a similar set I had to buy from ebay for $400.

 

[Cicada]

I would also consider that December is usually a buyers market on Ebay.

I've noticed this. I'm working on a project right now and it involves ebay/monetary values of pins and i'm noticing that pretty much NOTHING is selling on ebay right now.

 

[rohad]

There is no "gold standard" on pins. The bottom line is simple: a pin is worth a 100.00 to you only if YOU sell it and get that money for it. In your other thread you mentioned Kelley Blue Book, your car has a BBB of XXXX but when you try to sell it you most likley will not get that exact amount. So therefore the value of your car is what YOU actually sold it for. The way I see it with pins is the same way. If someone is offering you a pin that you really want for a pin that ebay says is worth XXX maybe you should just pass on the trade and try your luck selling it on Ebay for that. But if it's a pin that you want and don't want to spend the cash then make the trade. Seems logical.

 

[iamdisneydan]

Its interesting the discussion about December being a terrible month to sell on ebay. I was just discssing with someone on the boards that many pins are seasonal. And apparently all pins dont do well around X-max.

My example was, I have a lot of very nice Chanukkah & Christmas pins. They sit in my books and boards all yers and I literally could not give them away, now that those holidays are here, I am trading them like crazy.

I think somepins have seasons. NBC I think is always in demand where a Graduation pin will not do well until just before the end of the school year and maybe a month after.

I do actually all of these things into account. It's some of the people I try trading, buying or selling with that make me wonder which is why I am happy to have all this input because maybe I can understand how they think.

And rocke01, if you did not rib me, who would? I love some of our debates and if ya did not rib me, I would be bummed
It's fun.......
And you know I tend to do things differently than most like our first trade. Seemed strange to you the way I approached you but once I got to explain, even you said it made perfect sense. What kills me is when I try to do someting nice and people take it the wrong way. (I am not talking about my post)

Cya,

TBGITB

 

[Rocke01]

I was thinking about this posting and I remembered what a trader told me once. He said... If you want some high end pins put your traders up for sale on Ebay and then use the money to buy what you really want. He said he put an entire bag full of pins up for sale and got a good amount for them. He then turned around and bought a grail pin that cost him a small fortune.H e justified it by saying, "I can get more trader pins. I may never have the opportunity to get this grail again". No one was trading it on PinPics and it was a pin to date I have never seen just heard about so I believe that he may have been correct.

I have been tempted to try that a few times but for me it is not the right time. I think the summer is the best time to sell and from Thanksgiving to Valentines day is the best time to buy. I have seen auctions go insanely low this time of year. Most people don't buy around Christmas because they need what money they have for Christmas. Also, buy it now prices are usually inflated in general. Many times I have written the seller asking them to drop their buy it now price usually using whatever I find out to justify my asking (the selling price of completed auctions going for less for example). Many have changed auctions to free shipping or added a best offer on a prearranged amount set up by the two of us. This seems to work more than half of the time. I think it is worth the effort because the worst thing is that the seller declines and you don't get the pin you didn't have in the first place. JMO

 

[edgeo99]

I think my theory on trading is a bit different, and maybe it is because I am still relatively new to the hobbie, but a lot of times I dont take into account the value of the pin. I look more at the edition size and how much I want the pin. And when I do happen to think about the value of a pin, I typically think of the purchase price rather than the current market value. Also, I think my view and theory on whether to make a trade or not comes from how I approach pin trading. I view pin trading as a hobbie (I love collecting things) and not a money making venture, not that there is anything wrong with making money off pins. Now that is not to say I go around trading low LE's for common rack pins...I'm not as gullable as when I first started trading. Anyways, thats my general view point, dont know if that helps at all though.

P.S. Dan I thought you said you were going to keep your post short and sweet this time? What happened? Haha, just kidding.

 

[erudolf]

I do actually all of these things into account. It's some of the people I try trading, buying or selling with that make me wonder which is why I am happy to have all this input because maybe I can understand how they think.

I find that it is very rare to run into someone who says "I don't care if your pin is worth $10 and mine is worth $50, they are both LE 250 so let's trade!". More often than not, when someone says they only go by LE, or trade/wants ratios, or original cost, they are usually proposing a trade where their pin has a lower market value. They may be saying "this is how I trade" but what they may be thinking is, "how can I spin this so it looks fair but really favors me?"

 

[jennafae]

I'm more of a trade by gut feel person. I do usually check out values on ebay, but if its something I want I trade for it. I just traded a LE125 disney store for a LE300 DSF, but that is also a question of availability for me. I can get disneystore pins easily and can't get DSF pins as easily in Washington. I do pretty much limit my trades to Ariel though, there are a few exceptions, but I think about them long and hard. So even if the trade is "even" I may not do it if I'm not being offered Ariel- which mostly only applies to in-person trades because I don't have much besides Ariel on my wants list.

 

[wdwjuan]

If its from China, it's most likely a scrapper.

 

[iamdisneydan]

Hey Edgeo99,
That was short for me...lol
I cant help it, I am a talker and never at a loss for words.

One thing about edition size and i know I am only talking about maybe 5% of pins which are mostly grails but I know of many pins that originally cost $49.95 and are now $500 and up pins. This is why some trades happen and some dont. Its all a metter of opinion. But dont discount all rack pins, there are some worth quite a bit.

And I dont collect for the money or to resale. We collect because it makes us happy. If we can spend less money doing it, even better.

EURDOLF. I absolutely 100% agree. When a shark wants your pins, it is valueless, once it is in their book, it suddenly becaome a high end expensive pin. I love that you said that because its true and maybe that why some people get so upset with points (I TRY TO) make because it ruins their game.

You hit the nail on the head. Wish I had said it but if I did, I can only imagine the flamming I would get...lol
(Here is a feel sorry for me moment) I am the forms new whipping post......
(could this be leading to another magic trick?)

 

[Rocke01]

If it turns out to be from Japan will it be real or a counterfeit of a scrapper.... just wondering... LOL

 

[Tr8dWitMe]

I see it as what is wanted now and what is unatainable from the past.

I would say since 2008 when Disney started to go Multiple Parks and Up the Editions sizes has the Grails from 2008 - present been few and far between. I have seen UP and Princess and the Frog being hot and wanted. Who elso can start a new theme within their generation? There is no way someone now can start to collect Wonderland, Stitch, ect.

Take

DSF 70628 it's LE 300 and has a 10/209 ratio. It is a current Grail for UP collectors and Grail hunters and sells around the $86 - $150 range. It could be obtained with the right trader at the right time for the right pin.

Take

WDI 62612 it's LE 300 and has a 13/226 ratio. It's a Grail but it's a stand alone pin. No one can collect all the stitch pins if your in the hobby today. It's a Grail because it hits themes - Mansion, costumes, Stitch, ect. It sells in the range of $50 - $100.

It no rhyme or reason to what will be a Grail or a trader that you'll see on a lanyard. It's hot today and common in a year. Look at all the Haunted Mansion pins that were dumped on the marked because Disney pushed out too many over one summer and going from nice collection to dam how am I gonna get all those. It remains that the 5% become greater Grails and are harder to find and harder to trade for. There is a certain Wonderland collerctor on these boards that I feel for. Every time a set of pins are released since the Movie there are multiple pins released.

In todays world it's about what getting rid of all your traders (sell or trade) and finishing your theme or getting the Grail before somone else does and making it harder to get the few left to be traded.

Case in point. I'm looking for pin 70345. I value this pin around $80. It last sold for $125. Doesn't mean it's worth that much. Just it sold to somone that wanted it that bad. The three prior sold around $80. It's ratio is 1/123 yet 100 of those have nothing to trade in it's price range or LE. I have no idea what that 1 trader wants for it. I have offered multi pins in the $30-$50 range to equal $180 and offered a Grail that sells in the $150-$200 range but yet to get am answer. Not even a "no thank you.". I'm guessing that the 1 is taking the last sold, being 1 trader and looking at future worth to be able to trade?

So Dan, what is a pin worth. About 10 cents of metal, 1 cent of rubber and 4 cents of "other materials."

PRICELESS

 

[iamdisneydan]

Good one. I used to wholesale sportscards and it is so true. Its a piece of paper with a picture on it and some stats on the back. Production cost is probably about a cent but people will buy that piece of paper for lots of monet, but if you are not into cards, its just a piece of paper with a picture.

 

[edgeo99]

No worries Dan, I was just trying to infec....I mean have a little fun in the post (that was a pretty short post for you, lol). And I didnt mean to imply that you were in the hobby just to make money, anyone with a quarter of a brain that reads your posts would know you love collecting disney pins for you and your kids. I think my comment was geared towards the sharks I see at the trading tables everytime I go that sit there and treat my pins like second class citizens...luckily I dont fall for their game anymore.

 

[carolynhill]

There is a certain Wonderland collerctor on these boards that I feel for. Every time a set of pins are released since the Movie there are multiple pins released.

Good point about how the number of pins released recently affects the value of pins. I collect(ed) Alice and used to complain that Disney didn't release enough Alice pins. When they started releasing more a while ago, I was happy at first and valued each new release highly, willing (for example) to pay $40 or $50 on eBay for the DS LE 100s. When the deluge continued and Disney kept releasing more and more and more Alice pins, I got exhausted (monetarily and psychologically) because I felt like I was always chasing the next release, trying to get every single new Alice pin. I saw no end in sight.

The plethora of Alice pins made me melt down! My brain suddenly said, "I can't keep doing this. I'm not having fun, and this costs too much money." Suddenly, no Alice pin seemed worth the values people were placing on them, mainly because if they were worth those values, then the total cost of a complete Alice collection was WAY more than I was willing to pay.

 

[Rocke01]

That happened to me with regard to Pirate pins. POC use to be my main collection until all the movies started and the onslaught of pins there after. My focus switched to HHG my secondary collection and they have almost destroyed my interest in that one as well. I seem to be getting pickier and pickier. Sometimes less is more I think.

 

[huertajv]

I do not think there is any real answer that suits every situation.

A pin is only as valuable as someone is willing to trade or pay. Just like anything else. There are some ugly pins (My opinion only) that are worth a ton of trades/money, but I wouldn't give a common hidden mickey for it. It just depends.

There are those who will tell you that they paid x amount of dollars for something, and if that is what they think is fair, then so be it. This does not mean it is fair to you.

You will have to take each case into consideration. Some days you will "score" and others you will just do poorly.

All in all, it's all about having a good time!

Happy Trading!

 

[Cicada]

I do not think there is any real answer that suits every situation.

A pin is only as valuable as someone is willing to trade or pay. Just like anything else. There are some ugly pins (My opinion only) that are worth a ton of trades/money, but I wouldn't give a common hidden mickey for it. It just depends.

There are those who will tell you that they paid x amount of dollars for something, and if that is what they think is fair, then so be it. This does not mean it is fair to you.

You will have to take each case into consideration. Some days you will "score" and others you will just do poorly.

All in all, it's all about having a good time!

Happy Trading!

agreed.

it's hard to know the motivation behind a particular trader, buyer or seller. As such, it makes it hard to value a collectible to begin with -- in the end, it's only worth what a particular person will pay for it, which is why knowing the value (over time) of a particular pin is a good piece of info to have when trying to determine "value" (which is always subjective)

 

[iamdisneydan]

Everyone has great points. I wrote a post NEVER NEED A PIN THAT BAD (Paitence is a virtue)
In it I mentioned a pin Lizzie wanted that the guy wanted 5 hard to find DSF pins and I shrugged it off and the next week we traded one for one DSF for DSF. Yes, it is all about timing and every other variable that is possible. What I like about a thread like this is all of the insight and opinions from different traders.

It also gives you a lot to think about. I had a Michael Jordon Rookie Card that was valued at about $3200.00 and I did not want to sell it but this guy wanted it so bad, He offered me $4,000.00 and I took it. The next week I sold another one because there was something I wanted and took $2,500.00 for it and pins are no different.

But I think there still is a general low and high (which gives an average) to all memorbilia and that gives you an idea of what it is approx worth. Then it is your decision to pay more if you really want it or wait and try to get it for less. I know we see all the time on eBay the same pin at the same time and all Buy It Nows and they can range from $25.00 to $80.00.

I guess that can be looked at bith ways. The $25.00 does not realize or its not that valuable to them, or, the $80.00 is way over priced.
If you wanted the pin, obviously your not going to buy the $80.00 one which always makes me wonder what they are thinking when the person right next to them is at $25.00 I just wonder why the higher price person does not drop but maybe they are hoping the lower price one sell, no-one else list it and then the market is thers if someone really wants it. Some people at that point may feel it could happen that it is never listed again and they want it that bad.

I do know the bottom line (now if I say bottom line, I should only say 1 more sentance ....) people will trade if they are both happy with what they get regardless of wants/ trade or price. (done)

 

[Gloomy]

I just wonder why the higher price person does not drop but maybe they are hoping the lower price one sell, no-one else list it and then the market is thers if someone really wants it.

It's probably a combination of what you described, mixed with either a general reluctance to sell, and/or the more prominent intent to trade the pin at a profitable rate (or for a personal HG) than to sell it for its base market value.

Like, I started buying pins at the DSF just a few weeks ago. As soon as I returned home on release days, each pin was thrown up on eBay for what I knew was going to be considerably more than the lowest BIN at the time. The pins were also immediately posted for trade. My main intent was to gauge the marketplace since I was (and am still) a newbie, with the primary thought of using the pins as pinpics trade fodder, moreso than reselling them. Lo and behold, a few DID sell as the marketplace was occasionally, and momentarily, swept clean of a fraction of the pins I'd listed. The majority of the pins traded instead, netting me pins I was very happy with and that would've cost considerably more on eBay than their lowest BIN sale value (and much more than the retail value I paid).

Granted, I'm talking about $10-$12 pins with an average eBay BIN of $20, while your comments seem more geared towards $50+ pins. But I think the overall philosophy holds true.

-JD

 

[iamdisneydan]

I think the same holds true with all value pins. Something to also think about with eBay is this.
I used the example of the Nemo POH (or a lot of other ones too). It was in the stores at DLR for a couple of months, yet, it was selling on a regular basis on eBay for $29.95 (some were even higher) Now this is all while you can still go buy one for $9.95 less discounts at DLR. Of course, the people who are buying these are usually in other states far away and they cant get to the park and they dont have someone to go get it for them. (Unless they were part of the group "Friends of iamdisneydan" (plug).

To us locals, it's still a $9.95 pin less 10 - 20% but to them, it's a $29.95 pin and they are happy to pay it. So even geograpically, it makes a difference. And if you notice, most of the time (not all the time) most of those pins are listed by sellers in So. Cal.

So even the bargin bin pins from DSF you will see online for $20 - $30.00 and they sell, but chances are, you would not trade $30.00 worth of pins for one being a local (just an asumption)