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DSF/DSSH Live from Hollywood - Wreck it Ralph release

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DSF/DSSH Live from Hollywood - Wreck it Ralph release
Its fun to stand around for hours eating ice cream and people watch! I always bring my good luck charm so far is has worked at every release...
 
unibear said:
Actually, I do. Right now, living in Tennessee, I have a guaranteed 0% possibility of getting any pins from DSF since I can't just show up for the releases. Even with bots, I (and everyone outside of Southern CA) would have a better chance of getting new, wanted pins useful for trades if DS.com got their act together again and sold decent pins online.
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I agree. For anyone that isn't located in CA or FL (and even then, FL doesn't get nearly as many good pins as CA considering CA has monthly nice releases from GSF and Mickey's of Glendale) it's impossible to get a pin if it isn't released in DS.com directly from Disney. The only way to get pins at cost is through an awesome friend or by a lucky score on eBay, so online releases, even if they were swamped with bots, are our only hope.
 
Well to be fair, the Florida parks seem to be a hot bed for the AP releases. You also have the annual big pin convention event down there. Not to mention all the other park combinations and outlet centers available.
 
Powerline's Number 1 Fan said:
I didn't say anything, though, because I figured I'd come across as a creeper and no one would even recognize my username, lol.
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LOL. As a newcomer to the DSF releases I totally know what you mean. You should say hi next time though! When I'm out there I try to meet as many people as I can. I've definitely had a few people look at me funny or treat me like a weirdo, but the majority of people are really nice :)

I'm glad they switched the system to raffle, because otherwise me living in AZ I would have absolutely no chance of being able to get any pins. Even this last release when I had terrible luck and my group of three all got bad numbers. I had some friends here who were awesome and helped me out. :D
 
Well at least they made enough vouchers to go around. Could you imagine what might of happened had they misplaced #200-300 like they did for that one release. Chaos.
 
I honestly don't think any pin trader will be happy until someone dressed in a disney costume turns up at there door and gives them an LE 20 Frozen Beloved Tails, with all the characters on, free of charge.

Guys. This is the whole point of the hobby, it's supposed to be fun! Just chill out and get on with it. If you don't like how the releases work then don't go to them. Simple as. We have to deal with fortnightly online releases over here, you guys in SoCal should just be grateful that you have DSF and DLR and just enjoy the hobby.

I hate to preach but I just hate moaners!

-Charlie
 
My husband who is not a pin trader at all has gone to 2 releases so far this month, including WIR and has been very pleasantly surprised by the releases. It seems that the raffle system makes the release process a lot less intimidating for new folks. He went on Saturday so we could trade a set to a member here who really wanted them but couldn't make it to the release. I felt awful when he pulled 724 but you win some and you lose some and it least it felt fair. Even with 850 people, my husband said it was orderly and people were in good spirits. No drama from what he could see. I can't wait until I can go too.
 
CheshireCat said:
I honestly don't think any pin trader will be happy until someone dressed in a disney costume turns up at there door and gives them an LE 20 Frozen Beloved Tails, with all the characters on, free of charge.
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I could do without the "costume part" :lol: I know what you mean, sometimes it gets annoying but...it is a "fun" hobby after all.
 
My sister-in-law came with me this time in order to try to get a set for my brother who is a big WIR fan. We drove from home starting at 12:30AM that morning and finally got in line at 5:30AM. When we got there I was very surprised to see that the line had already gone around the corner, that was a first for me. When I do come to DSF/DSSH releases I try to get there 1.5 hours before the cut off time since I need to account for any type of traffic coming from northern Cal. We both got bad numbers (807 for me and she got 461) but she got to meet my friends and we met a few new people too. We had breakfast at Mel's and then went back to get our sundaes with the Scar PTD. Then we went down to Anaheim and we found not 1 but 3 comic and collectibles stores. These stores were perfect for us, we bought so much stuff and they even had Disney pins for me to add to my collections. Downtown Disney was our last stop and I ran into a old college dorm mate. I still spent too much money on pins :)

Overall after the 5 hour drive to Hollywood, we didn't get our WIR sets but we had a blast. It was the journey that made the trip worth it for us. We always know we have a 50/50 chance of getting a set and always come in with that mind set of, "Hey, I did a lot of driving for nothing but it's going to fun because I will catch up with friends, meet new people, etc." I'm sure I will do this again and I'm sure I will either get a good number or a bad number many more times too come.
 
jazzytrumpet said:
Actually, the chances are the same for everyone. In your example, with 10 numbers total (5 good, 5 bad; 10 people), unless the first through ninth person reveals what number (good or bad) they received, the odds are the same.

Look at it this way. Say all the numbers/vouchers were sealed individually in envelopes. Everyone is handed an envelope and after the 10th envelope has been handed out, everyone opens their envelope. Everyone's odds would be the same: 50:50 - 5 out of 10 - in other words, 50% chance of getting a good number and 50% chance of getting a bad number. It doesn't matter if you pull the 1st envelope or the last envelope, the odds are the same. The odds only change if the person in front tells the person behind them what they got (and then that person does the "math").

So, with 850 people and 400 sets, there was a 47% chance to get a good number, whether you're first or last. Some people's "luck" is just better than others, I suppose.
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I would agree if we all got a number at the same time, but we're not getting the number at the same time. The simple fact that one person gets a number and doesn't put it back into the pool of available numbers means that each draw is dependent on each other...so whether or not they tell you that they got a good number or a bad number your chances change. Now these changes on the (10 people, 5 good numbers, 5 bad numbers) are noticeable changes (for an easy example) but with such a huge amount of people the changes of 'luck' are so negligible that we do all basically have the same chance.

As an example, say there are 100 vouchers printed for an LE 50 release (50 good, 50 bad). Say you're 21 in line. Now the first 20 go up and let's pretend they all get bad numbers...so even if you specifically don't know that they all got bad numbers, your chances of pulling a good number are now 50/80 (62.50%) simply because there are less bad numbers in the pool of numbers. Now the probability of the first 20 people all getting bad numbers (or good numbers) is so immensely low (in a completely random setting) that such a huge difference in the probability of getting a good or bad number from the 1st person almost never happens. But your odds all around go up and down (at small percentages) throughout the whole release.
 
I would love the chance to get LEs online. It sucked staying awake until 1a and still not getting the Frozen jumbo, so I have no illusions that online would be perfect. I considered the drive to CA for this release, and ended up paying the market rate for the set instead. I felt that the odds of not getting pins and spending all the money to get out there and thus not being able to afford a set on the secondary market was too great. maybe next time, though.
 
The the point about how they forgot to put in a certain number, ex. 200-300. Just let everyone go through, get a number. When you run out, add in how ever many you need, figure out person #1's odds of a good number and apply to the next batch, restart. SO lets say they are LE400, 562 people came and you forgot numbers 201-300. Person #1 had a 71% chance to get a good number. 462 people went through before you ran out of batch 1, I'll call it. So now you need 100 more people to go through. Just toss in vouchers numbered 1-100, make them a different color maybe. Now nubmers 1-71 get the pins, 72-100 don't. So now you should have people holding the original vouchers of 1-200 get pins. Also people with 301-429 get pins and people with 1-71 of the different color get pins. Everyone had a 71% change starting out to get them. No need to redraw all over again, or do it by wristband order.
 
chroll said:
I would love the chance to get LEs online. It sucked staying awake until 1a and still not getting the Frozen jumbo, so I have no illusions that online would be perfect. I considered the drive to CA for this release, and ended up paying the market rate for the set instead. I felt that the odds of not getting pins and spending all the money to get out there and thus not being able to afford a set on the secondary market was too great. maybe next time, though.
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Same thing happened with me for Frozen, apparently Disney does not like its customers to sleep. LOL
 
chroll said:
I would love the chance to get LEs online. It sucked staying awake until 1a and still not getting the Frozen jumbo, so I have no illusions that online would be perfect. I considered the drive to CA for this release, and ended up paying the market rate for the set instead. I felt that the odds of not getting pins and spending all the money to get out there and thus not being able to afford a set on the secondary market was too great. maybe next time, though.
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starry_solo said:
Same thing happened with me for Frozen, apparently Disney does not like its customers to sleep. LOL
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I'm up at 3am so there is no way I'm getting a good night sleep on big releases O_o I do agree that the time is utterly terrible (why not 9pm PST, so it's only midnight for me and in between for the rest of the US?) but if it at least gives me a shot, I'll take it :P
 
PinHunters said:
I would agree if we all got a number at the same time, but we're not getting the number at the same time. The simple fact that one person gets a number and doesn't put it back into the pool of available numbers means that each draw is dependent on each other...so whether or not they tell you that they got a good number or a bad number your chances change. Now these changes on the (10 people, 5 good numbers, 5 bad numbers) are noticeable changes (for an easy example) but with such a huge amount of people the changes of 'luck' are so negligible that we do all basically have the same chance.

As an example, say there are 100 vouchers printed for an LE 50 release (50 good, 50 bad). Say you're 21 in line. Now the first 20 go up and let's pretend they all get bad numbers...so even if you specifically don't know that they all got bad numbers, your chances of pulling a good number are now 50/80 (62.50%) simply because there are less bad numbers in the pool of numbers. Now the probability of the first 20 people all getting bad numbers (or good numbers) is so immensely low (in a completely random setting) that such a huge difference in the probability of getting a good or bad number from the 1st person almost never happens. But your odds all around go up and down (at small percentages) throughout the whole release.
Click to expand...

The point would be that you are dependent on if the person in front tells the person behind what they got. If they don't, everyone's odds are the same. It doesn't matter if the numbers are put back in the pool or not.

If #1 tells #2 what they got, #2 tells #3 what #1 and #2 got, and so forth, then of course, by #10, #10 would know without a doubt what they got because they know what #1 through #9 got. However, information doesn't trickle down like that -- person #400 doesn't know what #1-399 got, so that person doesn't know if their odds are 50% or less or more.

If #1 doesn't tell #2 what they got, then the odds are still the same. 50% no matter if you're #1 or #10.

#1 - 50% chance
#2 - there was a 50% chance #1 got a good number X 4/9 (remaining good spots / total spots left) + 50% chance #1 got a bad number x 5/9 (remaining good spots / total spots) = 4/18 + 5/18 = 9/18 = again 50% chance
#3 - 50% chance #1 good x 50% chance #2 good x 3/8 (remaining good spots / total spots left) + 50% chance #1 bad x 50% chance #2 good x 4/8 + 50% chance #1 good x 50% chance #2 bad x 4/8 + 50% chance #1 bad x 50% chance #2 bad x 5/8 = 3/32 + 4/32 + 4/32 + 5/32 = 16/32 = again 50% chance
and so forth...

You might get fluctuation within a family/group that are telling each other what they got before the next one pulls a number, but again, that is dependent on if you know what numbers have been given out (both good and bad numbers). At the rate the line goes, people don't share information with their group until most of them are past the voucher barrel and crowding the sidewalk behind it.

So, it doesn't matter if you're #1 or #850, your odds are the same; unless you're #850 and you happen to know what #1-849 got ahead of you.
 
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