PIN PICS (Wants / Trades Accuracy) Case Study
- Messages
- 1,252
- Location
- Redondo Beach, CA
Hello Pin Friends.
Anything that has any value these days has to have some sort of history of sales to determine what it is worth. For Cars, it's the Kelly Blue Book. For Sports Cards it's the Beckette and for pins it's pinpics. But just how accurate is the information?
I have done a personal case study (someone needed to take the time) and have come to some interesting conclusions, not opinions, conclusions and I think you will find it very interesting.
When most people who know what pinpics is trade, they take into account the wants / trade ratio. if the trades are high and the wants are low, that would indicate the pin is not very desirable and does not hold a great value while if ite pin has few trading and hundreds wanting, this is a highly demanded pin with a short supply so it wil bring a premium.
But is the pin really as elusive as it may seem. Here is an actual example and my synopsis of what is happening and why pinpics should only be used as a general reference if even that. Sometimes even if we dont like it, you have to go by what pins are actually selling for, not want trade ratios and here is why.
I looked at mostly DA100 pins for this study. Many had only 3 - 8 people trading and 100's wanting. First lets look at the pin (I did this with over 50 pins from Jessica to stitch). So we have an LE100. Not everyone buys a pin to trade. Many of the people who buy these pins have them for their personal collection so lets say 10 of 100 or 10% of the people will be trading the pin. Still a very low amount.
But here is where the problem comes in and this is not only with LE100 pins but many pins that hold a greater vale than $100.00.
People who could never afford or who have nothing to trade for these pins have them on their wants list. Some of these people have less than 25 pins for trade and all are lanyard pins. In most cases it's wishful thinking and just a cool pin. Typically they may cruise pinpics and see cool pins that they like paying no attention to edition size and I have found this true in most cases and you can see for yourself.
Just because I want a rolls Royce bently and it's on my most wanted cars list does not mean when one comes up for sale that I can afford it. Sure I would love to have it and a ferarri too but you have to be realistic. Now here is where the proof from my study comes in.
I looked at over 50 pins that fall into this catagory and there is no need to look at the people trading, more so the people wanting. I clicked on the wanting and then went to each member to see their entire wants list.
First thing I found is that there were about 10 traders who had DA100 Jessicas on their wants but also every other Jessica you could imagine. Now I looked at their traders and also their collection.
Their collections had NO DA100 pins or for that matter many pins of much value, mostly cast lanyard and HM's and their trades were in the same field. So basically they could never trade for the pins they want. It;s just in their catagory and they in many cases dont know if it's a $5.00 pin or a $500.00 pin.
This held true for 96% of the people I checked. (yes I have time on my hands and wanted to prove this to someone else so i thought I would share with all of you)
On a particular Jessica DA100 pin there are 3 people trading and 265 wanting. Of course i did not check all 265 but based on averages of the sample 50 accounts, maybe 15 - 20 people can actually afford or trade for this pin.
I think you can see the point I am trying to make. PinPics is just a guide and I dont feel the wants trade ratios are very accurate. Evenpinpics every 6 months removes the inactive people and the ratios go crazy. Thats because some novice collectors who mark every pin in a catagory they like mark them but they are not really traders and have not been online in 6 months so they remove the information. So how accurate is that?
No matter how much you hate it, you need to go by ebay and what pins really sell for. Look at sale boards and see what people are asking and more important are they getting it.
I mentioned in a previous post that just because I list a HM or cutie for $100.00 on eBay it does not mean it is a $100.00 pin. IT HAS TO SELL. And even if 1 pin sells for that amount, that is not much history.
Like houses on the same block, if 25 houses sell for half a million dollars and one sells for a million, the one house will not greatly affect the track record of the other houses. now if 2,3,4 or more start to sell for that price, the prices will go up but it must have some consistancy.
Yes, it's all about supply and demand but is pinpics accurate enough to determine that?
I think based on my studt that the information is not really that accurate. Yes, pin information and pin numbers are great so we know what we are trading for but when someone tells me there are 500 people wanting a pin, how many of those are legitimate?
I think regardless of how many people are wanting, you can pretty much base your figure on a few things. How many were made, what percentage of those are being traded and when looking at the wants, recalculate based on the statistical information I have supplied which would be 10% of the number listed, so if their are 265 wanting, that number in reality is probably closer to 26. Still a desirable pin but if value is based on demand, it is more accvurate to figure 26 wants versus 265 wants.
See for yourself. Try it with one high end pin. Remember a lot of people do not look at value of a pin when adding it to their wants. If you collect Stitch, you add stitch pins, if its C&D you add those pins. Most people dont know or look or have any idea of the cost of the pin, just that they would like it, and dont forget, I would like the silver shadow and a Bently too.........
Whats your opinion to this study and why not try it before posting.
Pic a pin, look at the wants and see what the people who want it have in their collection, number of pins in that collection, trades available and what they are, etc...
I look forward to seeing how many of you agree with this proven fact.
Anything that has any value these days has to have some sort of history of sales to determine what it is worth. For Cars, it's the Kelly Blue Book. For Sports Cards it's the Beckette and for pins it's pinpics. But just how accurate is the information?
I have done a personal case study (someone needed to take the time) and have come to some interesting conclusions, not opinions, conclusions and I think you will find it very interesting.
When most people who know what pinpics is trade, they take into account the wants / trade ratio. if the trades are high and the wants are low, that would indicate the pin is not very desirable and does not hold a great value while if ite pin has few trading and hundreds wanting, this is a highly demanded pin with a short supply so it wil bring a premium.
But is the pin really as elusive as it may seem. Here is an actual example and my synopsis of what is happening and why pinpics should only be used as a general reference if even that. Sometimes even if we dont like it, you have to go by what pins are actually selling for, not want trade ratios and here is why.
I looked at mostly DA100 pins for this study. Many had only 3 - 8 people trading and 100's wanting. First lets look at the pin (I did this with over 50 pins from Jessica to stitch). So we have an LE100. Not everyone buys a pin to trade. Many of the people who buy these pins have them for their personal collection so lets say 10 of 100 or 10% of the people will be trading the pin. Still a very low amount.
But here is where the problem comes in and this is not only with LE100 pins but many pins that hold a greater vale than $100.00.
People who could never afford or who have nothing to trade for these pins have them on their wants list. Some of these people have less than 25 pins for trade and all are lanyard pins. In most cases it's wishful thinking and just a cool pin. Typically they may cruise pinpics and see cool pins that they like paying no attention to edition size and I have found this true in most cases and you can see for yourself.
Just because I want a rolls Royce bently and it's on my most wanted cars list does not mean when one comes up for sale that I can afford it. Sure I would love to have it and a ferarri too but you have to be realistic. Now here is where the proof from my study comes in.
I looked at over 50 pins that fall into this catagory and there is no need to look at the people trading, more so the people wanting. I clicked on the wanting and then went to each member to see their entire wants list.
First thing I found is that there were about 10 traders who had DA100 Jessicas on their wants but also every other Jessica you could imagine. Now I looked at their traders and also their collection.
Their collections had NO DA100 pins or for that matter many pins of much value, mostly cast lanyard and HM's and their trades were in the same field. So basically they could never trade for the pins they want. It;s just in their catagory and they in many cases dont know if it's a $5.00 pin or a $500.00 pin.
This held true for 96% of the people I checked. (yes I have time on my hands and wanted to prove this to someone else so i thought I would share with all of you)
On a particular Jessica DA100 pin there are 3 people trading and 265 wanting. Of course i did not check all 265 but based on averages of the sample 50 accounts, maybe 15 - 20 people can actually afford or trade for this pin.
I think you can see the point I am trying to make. PinPics is just a guide and I dont feel the wants trade ratios are very accurate. Evenpinpics every 6 months removes the inactive people and the ratios go crazy. Thats because some novice collectors who mark every pin in a catagory they like mark them but they are not really traders and have not been online in 6 months so they remove the information. So how accurate is that?
No matter how much you hate it, you need to go by ebay and what pins really sell for. Look at sale boards and see what people are asking and more important are they getting it.
I mentioned in a previous post that just because I list a HM or cutie for $100.00 on eBay it does not mean it is a $100.00 pin. IT HAS TO SELL. And even if 1 pin sells for that amount, that is not much history.
Like houses on the same block, if 25 houses sell for half a million dollars and one sells for a million, the one house will not greatly affect the track record of the other houses. now if 2,3,4 or more start to sell for that price, the prices will go up but it must have some consistancy.
Yes, it's all about supply and demand but is pinpics accurate enough to determine that?
I think based on my studt that the information is not really that accurate. Yes, pin information and pin numbers are great so we know what we are trading for but when someone tells me there are 500 people wanting a pin, how many of those are legitimate?
I think regardless of how many people are wanting, you can pretty much base your figure on a few things. How many were made, what percentage of those are being traded and when looking at the wants, recalculate based on the statistical information I have supplied which would be 10% of the number listed, so if their are 265 wanting, that number in reality is probably closer to 26. Still a desirable pin but if value is based on demand, it is more accvurate to figure 26 wants versus 265 wants.
See for yourself. Try it with one high end pin. Remember a lot of people do not look at value of a pin when adding it to their wants. If you collect Stitch, you add stitch pins, if its C&D you add those pins. Most people dont know or look or have any idea of the cost of the pin, just that they would like it, and dont forget, I would like the silver shadow and a Bently too.........
Whats your opinion to this study and why not try it before posting.
Pic a pin, look at the wants and see what the people who want it have in their collection, number of pins in that collection, trades available and what they are, etc...
I look forward to seeing how many of you agree with this proven fact.
Last edited:
