Mark Heard’s white paper on DSF release theory
Much talk has come up lately about an alternative, or better, way for DSF pin releases. I am all about fair and efficient releases. I have a dual-bachelors degree in Bus. Administration and Finance and am well versed in statistics and problem solving. My personal belief is an auditable online random selection process is the best option. Here is my proposal for how the events would unfold. This will require DSF to procure some kind of online system to maintain user accounts, passwords, randomization function, and email generator for the selected.
First, everyone must sign up for a DSF shopper number. This would be done over the next few releases to space it out. Out of state, long distant, shoppers can sign up via email, but must include a photo copy of their ID. Children may sign up, but must provide their parents ID, preferably the parent that will escort them should they be chosen. Each person is limited to one number and will be required to present their ID’s when they purchase the pins (as most do already when they pay with a card.) I suppose someone with a twin can have an advantage, nothing you can do there. (Shopper number cards may be an idea, but would be an added cost.)
The process for a release would go like this:
Show your flyer at least two weeks before the first release of the following month. Allow people time to make their decision. Two weeks before a release, have shoppers log in and select they want to enter the drawing, allow a 1 week time to sign up. One week prior to the release, select the winners and email them. If the release is LE300, draw the first 150, email them to come at 10am. Draw another 50-75 and let them know they are second chance line, nothing is guaranteed, but to come at noon. No one without a selection email can come before 2pm. I propose if the release is LE300, and you have more than 300 sign up, make the release 1 per person and stagger the arrival times.
I also suggest you up your edition sizes for the most popular characters. 500+ for Tangled and Up characters. 400+ for Jessica, Stitch, Jack, Princesses, Wall-E, etc. Normal 300 edition sizes for normal releases. Change up the surprise edition sizes and don’t always make it limit 1 which is hard for us traders that reciprocate favors back to Disneyworld or Disney Paris. Limit 1 benefits families and resellers that employ people to wait in line. Also some people pay homeless people to buy them surprise pins (Happened at both Up and Tangled Beloved Tales events.) Not all DSF pins have to be 150, 300, or 500. The demand has increased beyond those sizes and demand will stay strong with a slight bump in size. Disneyland Paris often does LE400-LE900 pins. Their PTN’s, comparable to your marquees and Beloved Tales are LE400’s. You can obviously keep making lower LE’s of the most popular characters, we will love them, but higher edition sizes will help everyone have a chance at the popular pins.
You can decide how to check off the list. I suggest a last name, first name list and their shopper number for those selected. Check off the list with a line helper in front of the registers, make them show ID. Confirmation email prints are nice but waste trees. I’d also allow the first group to show up from 10am to 12pm. Then the second group can come 12pm to 2pm. Then second chance can come 2pm on. That allows a little window for people to work schedules and will spread out your staff needs. Unless you prefer it quick and over with but I assume if you’re calling in a staff person they are staying at least 4 hours anyways. Hopefully spreading out the time will get people in your doors during lunch hours and may net you additional food and movie purchases.
Some sort of infraction must be placed on people that sign up, win, and do not show up. Perhaps after 3 no-shows they cannot sign up again for 6 months. This will limit people from signing up unless they know they can make the release. Also, it will limit the out-of-towners from signing up and never intending to come in person in the first place.
The website/program may also track who has not been selected and perhaps after 5 or 6 times they entered and were not selected they have a better chance at the next drawing (Would require programmers to use math equations to weight user names according to those not chosen, but you must not tell anyone if you do actually do this as they will say it is not a fair system eventhough you’d actually be making it more fair by doing that. And I mean you add probability to people that have signed up and not been chosen, not people that have simply not submitted entries.) Or another idea is if you’ve been passed up for X number of times, you get your name in a hat for a special raffle at the next DSF Pin Trading Event. Something like that, those two thoughts are just ideas.
This is my idea. Thank you for your consideration.
I’d also like to point a few holes at popular ideas that are currently tossed around.
The “everything is a surprise” method really favors people that are close geographically to DSF and the dishonest few that have no shame in hiring a homeless person or corralling tourists to stand next to them at the counter. (This happens often with limit-1-per releases.) I can see many speeding tickets and accidents for people rushing to DSF when a VERY popular pin is announced.
Doing an online system that does not somehow confirm the identity will allow people to sign up unlimited email accounts and enter the drawing unlimited amounts. People will sign up fake names, in the event the fake name is chosen, they know there are X number of spots left in the standby line. This is why people must request a shopper number in person (or via email) with a photo ID.
Random starting point. This is the method when you line up all 300 people, pick a random person and start from that person and number off 1 through 150. This will cause instant panic when people find out they didn’t get it. You will have a lot of people angry and at DSF location. The online selection process keeps them away when they aren’t selected.
Raffle – The method of randomly drawing voucher numbers from a hat once everyone arrives. This will take a very long time and as the above idea, will have many upset people in a group there. My system doesn’t bring in crowds that are not guaranteed pins.