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PIN & POP PIN & POP Site Announcements & Ideas

PIN & POP PIN & POP Site Announcements & Ideas
Chris Nickols said:
Interesting, but I'd assume Worthpoint is scraping and getting some of their data from eBay.

@TheMickeyMouseRules & @hdtv267 how do you value your pins or what thought processes do you use to determine a trade is fair or not?
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They are, but over a longer time period. They also use other sources. They don’t say the value is x, they show the sold listings and the price (although if a best offer is accepted it does not tell you the price that was accepted). So take the information with a grain of salt.
 
To be clear. People are welcome to value trade. I would never tell someone they cannot decide on their own how to trade their pins. I am not saying that value traders are bullys (although I can see why you understood my post above that way.)

My point: eBay values are not a reasonable source for value data. The Bully comes into the picture with the use of eBay values. Using eBay values is manipulative in this hobby. eBay is a weapon bully traders use to justify their artificial inflation of recent releases. Its truly appalling to watch this occur over and over again and the newer traders get suckered in by it.

My response to anyone who asks me for pin values "I don't trade that way, but you are welcome to determine the trade from your perspective using value trading or whatever your choice is and I will determine any trade using my criteria and lets see if we can get there." Trading is a subjective hobby. Determining trades my way (and leaving value trading in the dust) leaves me feeling less vulerable to the manipulation in this hobby.

I do understand that pin people want this hobby reduced down to something easy to consider... like eBay values. Being able to say with confidence, this is what my pin is worth, is desirable. But simplefying/reducing pin value to what some random person paid on eBay is such a very small part of the big picture of the value of a pin.
 
What would you suggest *is* a good tool for less value-engaged collectors to not get sharked out of their good pins?

I've got two stories. One is personal and about 12 years old at this point, my Dad traded my Mom's extra Mulan Beloved Tales pin for a WDI Pressed Penny pin. His logic was that they were both LE 300 pins. My logic, is that may be true but trading a $250 pin for a $25 pin isn't okay. And when people find out they did that, they get the same sickening feeling they have when they realized how much they spent on authentic pins only to trade them for counterfeits. My Dad basically stopped trading on Pinpics after this because he recognized he was taken advantage of by the other trader (and the concerns about fakes).

Second, only a few days ago I saw someone on Facebook asking if they did okay trading with other guests in the park. They had traded the Ear Hat Super Chaser for about 5 other 2025 / 2024 Hidden Disney pins. And that led to a bit of a discussion of people seeing the park sharks target people who bought new HD pins to get their good pins for more common ones.
 
I provided my suggested list above.

People need to educate themselves to what is good data and what is bad data. It is not easy to figure out. Should all eBay data be believed? What about the Minnie Mouse D... I view this as a great example of influencing and manipulation. eBay says this pin is worth $1000 and so it is? I wouldn't pay $1000 for the Minnie D pin. Would you? Would anyone here? Really curious. Perhaps we need a poll. Would not be statistically significant in its results, but would be intersting data.

I am sorry that happened to your father Hopemax.

I do agree to not trade a pin with a higher value away for a lesser value pin like you and @Ajk note above.
 
How many examples of Minnie D's do we think exist? Out of 100K+ pins produced, how many are being price manipulated 20? 50? 100? 1000? These are all <1% of pins made, let alone "percentage of Ebay sales data." What percentage of Ebay sales data, across all pin sales, do you think is inaccurate due to manipulation? IMO, the vast majority of sales data is "representative despite" specific instances where it's not. That those specific instances aren't enough to dump a tool. Even in the example of the Minnie D, it would prevent a casual or new collector from trading it for a common, even if it's not actually worth $1K, and that has a good deal of benefit.
 
The trading goes both ways for sharks. A shark gets their pin value up to $1000 (say the Disney After Dark ELP pin set) and then someone tries to trade for it. The shark wants 25+ DSSH pin for that 5 pin set. That was a trader I ran into a few months back. I had to stop them and halt the trade as they actually had not stopped (ie, 25 low LE pins were not enough) selecting DSSH pins from my traders for their Disney After Dark pin set. I have to consider how much I actually paid for all of those DSSH pins as that is real money out of my pocket that I paid. Would I actually pay $1000 for the DAD pin set... no, but that trader wanted pins that would get me within a few hundred dollars of actually paying $1000 (based on what I paid retail for my pins.) They did not want any of the traders I had that were worth hundreds according to eBay solds... they wanted semi popular pins that were close to the original retail according to eBay. If I only considered eBay sold listings all of those DSSH pins for that set would have made sense, but I don't use the data this way. I consider what I actually paid. And I felt very good about walking away from this trader and not making that trade.

I have made a handful of high end trades that took so, so many multiples of pins from me. I get one pin... the value trader walks away with so many pins of value. I usually am left feeling taken advantage of, but I do try to not think of it that way as I did get a pin I really wanted (and this is where I need to focus). Getting sucked into the sadness of this hobby will ruin it for me and I am at this point well invested in this hobby and it would be tough to walk away.
 
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I don't agree. eBay sold listings are not statistically significant in general. We are value trading on very little data. Why would I value a trade based on what one or two or even three people paid (and that is most of the data on eBay... only a few are sold in the last 3 months.)
 
Anyway, if I were going to argue that Ebay prices aren't representative, I might point to the reality that there are so many non-Ebay sales points: In person events, Mercari, Whatnot, Facebook, Instagram, does Ebay reflect the current market? Or is it inflated due to who still uses Ebay.
 
I think people want to believe a pin they own has value... so if the value is good on eBay or Mercari, etc. everyone jumps on board to this value and it becomes the accepted value at pin events facebook instagram. Is it reality? I think it becomes a reality (based on people's desires who own the pin.)

Its a form of price fixing (collusion comes to mind, but I think pin trading is more herd mentality than a more insideous plot). The pin value is basically set by a few insignificant data points. Because our reference point (eBay) is such a commonly used tool for value.

And regarding the HD chaser for 5 HD regular pins... I might have made that trade (one chaser for 5 regular hidden mickey pins.) That actually seems like a decent trade to me. I have no interest in selling a HD chaser on eBay, so getting 5 pins for one... not too shabby. Perhaps instead of feeling sorry for that trader and telling them they didn't get enough, we should encourage them for getting what they wanted.
 
On that specific pin - I trade very regularly at DL. In all the time since that pin was released, I never saw it in the wild. And I've only ever seen MAYBE half a dozen that people have worn to show it off over the years, but probably less. It is extremely rare.

That said, i also never saw the round coin-style Iron Man hidden mickey chaser in the wild. And I've only ever seen it maybe 3 times in people's trade books (all wanting another rare chaser for it), which is why that one is sadly not in my collection. I don't have the WDW Black Panther chaser from that set either because no one has even brought it here to show off much less for trade.

Other chasers have been more "common", eventually landing in the $35-$50 value range depending on desirability. But that Minnie D was a definite outlier.

Anyway, back to the conversation at hand with my thanks to the P&P for their site and their incredible communication style which is respectful of both the hobby and those in it.
 
I am continually surprised by how many pin people don't have ideas (I personally call my ideas my MickeyMouseRules... hahaha... see what I did there...) for figuring out how to navigate in this hobby (trade, sell, collect, etc). I have learned to trade over 10 years by observing. I also attribute many of my rules/knowledge from a really wonderful trader long time trader. It has informed how I trade pins and how I value my pins for trade. Note: my use of 'value' here is not a dollar ($$) value. My value in trading is not attached to money. The reason why I don't have a ready answer for people when they say 'what is your value on that pin'.

Sharing again some criteria I use (encourage others to add to this list and share here... post here to share with the community and PnP.) I would love to see other criteria get equal time on PnP as a disclaimer or its own place on the web site. To arrive at a 'best value' for any trade (a subjective and personal thing for each of us) the below could be considered. In order of importance to each individual.

Trading criteria to help the traders trying to figure this out:
-Popularity of character/series/pin (ie, how many people want it versus how many are for trade)
-LE size
-Retail price
-How much I paid for a pin
-How many of the pin I have to trade
-Which pin(s) do I like more (mine or the one on offer)
-The kindness of the person I am trading with (not really a criteria for PnP, but I use this in other places)
-Age of the pin (mine and the pin on offer)
-Will I find the pin on offer easily again?
and yes, we all look at this data, because it is how we are being trained by each other in this hobby, but it should be only one of many (I personnally say 'minor') criteria for any decision:
-Check sold price(s) on eBay or worthpoint or what you have seen in peoples trade books (as I flip pages of peoples trade books I will observe and note their price for pins), etc.

For pin traders/sellers/collectors (how ever you define yourself within the community): make your decision, your way and be confident it was the best decision for you (how anyone trades is up to the individual). Pin trading is a great way to grow your own style and confidence within the hobby.

I will stop now. Thanks you for the debate/discussion and listening to my well intentioned opinions.
 
I definitely do all of this. Don't always consider retail price because of not having access to the parks.

Another thing I look at but not always is the "trade ratio" from PinPics. Wants divided by trades. (I think) duh.
Especially if I am offered two pins or if I want to know how my pin compares. I have several pins that I'm the only
one trading.

I also consider (as Anne said) how badly I "want" the pin and how long I've been looking for it.

I made what some people would consider a lopsided trade at the last Trade Arcade because I had been trying to get the
other pin for years.
 
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